2022 Swimming Pool Season Predictions
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The 2021 swimming pool season saw some pretty unprecedented problems. In the 30 years I have been active in the swimming pool industry I have never before encountered a back order or supply issue with something as integral as chlorine, and yet that very thing happened last year. Or at least you could say that chlorine shortages due to trichlor chlorine supply issues were felt in many areas of Canada and the USA. In some areas these supply issues continued on for months. Some areas are still dealing with supply issues for chlorine and pretty much all areas are experiencing significant cost increases for every form of chlorine, not just from years ago, but significant increases even from last years increased prices. For 30 years I would have absolutely taken for granted the availability of chlorine of every form at any local pool and spa store but this past year saw exactly this problem.
The writing was on the wall very early in the 2021 season when pool heaters supply stock ran out. Being that heaters are large and expensive this means they take time to manufacture and ship out to distribution centers. When the pandemic caused pool owners to buy every brand, make and model of heater off the shelves in spring of 2021 it set of a shortfall of heaters that essentially is still happening into the 2022 season. Yes some heaters did come back into stock towards the end of the 2021 season however this was too few and too late for pool owners to benefit from this year. Moving forward you can absolutely anticipate to see a heater shortfall again in the spring of 2022. With omicron covid infections surging worldwide it is entirely possible that there is another pandemic caused shut down, or at the very least you can assume that many people who might have travelled or spent more time away from home might choose to stay home by the pool again this summer. If you can't leave your home, or decide that you would prefer to stay at home, then having a swimming pool, especially a heated swimming pool is about as good as you could hope to do. Do you think that the 2022 swimming pool season will have issues like chlorine shortages or pool equipment shortages like heaters? I can all but guarantee it.
Shortages in the pool industry in 2022 - The reality is that the swimming pool industry has been absolutely on fire. People in record numbers stayed home when they normally would travel or do other things away from home for entertainment. This caused a surge in new pool installations as well as older pool renovations the likes of which the industry has never seen before. Every reputable builder in town is booked for years in advance. New pool installers moved into the vacuum created by covid to cash in on a surging pool industry when other workers are all sitting at home in record numbers. This makes for a very unstable pool installation and renovation market with many underskilled workers offering services available. It is a great time to own a pool but you have to be far more cautious and careful than normal when hiring a pool builder. You might want to check out this Ebook about how to get the most value with a new pool installation if you want to learn what questions you should be asking any pool builder you are interviewing. Looking ahead to the 2022 pool season I feel confident that we will see a continuation of the shortfalls we experienced last year. This is due to the amount of time it takes for new pool equipment to be made and shipped through to distribution. Most imported pool items, which is everything from brushes to inflatable toys to equipment like pumps and heaters takes months to make it from manufacturer to the sales shelf at your local store. These items need to be in transit long before the pool season starts if you want to be able to buy it in the spring. Unfortunately the supply chains are still broken, not just for pool equipment, but for many staple items that people need day to day.
Plastics & shipping container shortages - During covid manufacturing and industrial supply chains all shut down or at least reduced to skeleton crews. This caused supply chain interruptions for critical components like resins used for manufacturing. In doing so it created an environment where companies were competing for materials and bidding wars common at the industrial level. This resulted in supply shortages, and cost increases which were passed down to the retail level and continue to be experienced. I have seen price increases in excess of five times from a single manufacturer over the past year. You can absolutely expect to see further significant price increases in the 2022 season. Some chlorine supplies are scheduled to increase 25% in price on January 1st alone, and I would bet this is not the last chlorine price increase we see in 2022. So costs for plastic manufacturing has increased, and a shortage of shipping containers globally has increased shipping container prices up to 10 times their prior numbers. Again, this damages delicate supply lines which often operate on margins much too small to sustain sudden changes like this. Further, the nature of out modern day supply chain is that logistics managers optimize supply shipping routes to minimize how much stock is held, and for what length of time it is held. In normal circumstances this results in maximized profits, minimal requirements for storage of stock etc. however when supply chain interruptions happen it can cause weeks or months of long term issues. Normally a supplier might send 100 widgets per month to a retail seller, and when optimized the new 100 widget order shows up a day or two before the retail store is out of stock. It is a great system. But widgets are made in China and take two months or more to ship in, so the supplier at any given time has two orders of 100 widgets in transit on the way to the retailer. Now, enter a pandemic where manufacturing all but stops, shipping slows or stops, and people start panic buying everything off the shelves. The 100 widgets that should have lasted a month were sold out in two days, and the supplier can not increase production due to manufacturing and shipping problems. So at minimum it would take the supplier three months to change the supply chain to meet the new demand, but now securing shipping containers is hard, and expensive, and the retail store experiences continual price changes and shipping estimate delays. This is exactly where we are right now. We are not out of the woods. We are squarely in the middle of a supply chain disruption combined with an unexpected increase in demand across all product categories. It is a perfect storm of problems for the pool industry. Other industries are also suffering similar problems but the massive increase in the amount of pool installations and pool renovations and just business in general is unique to only a handful of industries.
Buy equipment and supplies far in advance - In 2022 if you are planning to replace a pump, or a filter, or a heater, or any other integral component for your pool you had better plan on shopping early. In a worst case scenario you may find that the item you need is simply not available or sold out / back ordered until the end of the 2022 swimming season. We saw record numbers of new pools and renovations of older pools last year and that means even more pool owners this year than last, with more on the way. It takes time to adjust logistics and shipping schedules and it also takes time to train new swimming pool industry employees. My prediction for the 2022 swimming pool season is difficulty. It will be hard to find the things you need to buy and they will be noticeably more expensive this year than last. When it comes time to install you will struggle to find good, available, experienced help to do so. This is a great time to be a DIY pool owner, or at least the type of person to research and call well in advance when you are trying to hire new services or buy new equipment.
What can you do as a swimming pool owner to help protect your interests and your pool? Really the best thing that you can do is understand what is happening and why it is happening. There is no sense getting mad at your local pool store when the price of chlorine goes up. They are definitely not getting rich on your chlorine costs. They are just passing increased costs along to you as they do not have the margins to be able to absorb these increased costs. It would be a very good idea to secure the pool chemicals that you will need for the year early on. Things like pool acid, chlorine, phospahte remover, cyanuric acid, pool salt (if you use salt) and enzymes would all be a good idea to pick up early. Please avoid panic buying or attempting to cash in on a shortage of supplies. I see absolutely no problem with being ahead of the curve and buying the chemicals you will need for the year in advance. If you buy up chlorine or anything else knowing that it will run in short supply and you can sell for profit, this is abhorrent as far as I am concerned. This is not a time to contribute to the problem but I see no problem with making sure you can maintain your own pool regardless of what happens later this season.
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Swimming Pool Steve is an award winning, second generation swimming pool and spa specialist from Ontario Canada. With over 10,000,000 views on the Swimming Pool Steve YouTube Channel, winner of the 2018 Pool & Spa Industry Leadership award and author of hundreds of pool and spa articles both online and in print Steve is committed to helping pool and spa owners as well as pool and spa industry workers learn more about the technical side of building, renovating, repairing and maintaining all types of swimming pools and spas. Follow Swimming Pool Steve on Facebook, Twitter and YouTube.
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